When I run strategy seminars, I usually do a session on long-run trends in the macroenvironment. While firms can’t usually influence macro-trends such as interest rates, demographics and legislation, changes and trends can open up strategic opportunities and threats. While some of these can be predicted with a degree of certainty, such as an aging population in Europe, others are harder to estimate (oil prices for example).
I don’t put a lot of faith in predictions regarding these trends. Our psychology means that we have a tendency to extrapolate from the past to predict the future and this means that we continually miss discontinuous change. Some of the famous predictions about the future of technology are part of business folklore:
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Author: John Steen
