In this year’s NBA playoffs the Dallas Mavericks displayed an uncanny ability to come from behind and win. Uncanny because to do so implies a defiance of expectation – teams that are ahead should, obviously, have a greater chance of winning a game. However, new research from Jonah Berger and Devin Pope suggests that once we account for some basic psychological principles of motivation, the odds of winning might, in some cases, be reversed. In other words, being behind by a little can actually increase a team’s likelihood of winning.
The authors’ hypothesis is based on two insights from behavioral economics : loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. We don’t like losing, and our efforts have greater marginal impact as we get closer to a goal. This suggests that teams that are behind should be motivated to catch up, and this motivation to catch up should increase as the discrepancy between scores diminishes. To test this theory they turned to the tapes and analyzed all NBA basketball games from 1993 through March 2009 with this simple question in mind: would teams that are slightly behind at halftime be more likely to win games than teams that are slightly ahead?
To read the full, original article click on this link: Bet on the Losing Team: Scientific American
Author:Piercarlo Valdesolo
