Making accurate predictions based on historical precedent is flawed, but thinking in scenarios reduces uncertainty.
This month, as forecasters predict what the new year will bring, many of them will reflect on how tough a year 2016 was for forecasts. Based on what was considered most likely to happen, most didn’t expect Brexit or a Donald Trump presidency in the United States, nor even Bob Dylan winning the Nobel Prize in Literature. As is typical for forecasters who focus on predicting one outcome, the majority went with the most likely case based on what they’d seen before.
