When will all the ice in the Arctic be gone? This is a question often asked of sea-ice researchers by the media, the general public and policy makers—and no wonder. Several recent reports have detailed the accelerated loss of summer sea-ice cover in the Arctic. In addition, the observed ice loss is generally happening faster than climate models have forecasted. The question gets even more complicated because we see a large spread in climate model simulations, with ice-free September conditions already happening in 2020 in some simulations but not until well beyond 2100 in others. So determining the answer is tricky. Is this, however, the correct question to be asking in the first place? It assumes sea-ice loss is a function of time, but is that the case?
