This week, we returned to the overarching story of the pandemic: the twin imperatives of saving lives and livelihoods. Our latest research builds on reports we published in April and May 2020, and on recent academic findings that the stringency of national lockdowns is not well correlated with changes in GDP. In our new report, we find that successful control of the virus is the key to unlocking the economy, by restoring the confidence consumers need to reengage in economic activity. In countries that have successfully controlled the coronavirus (“near zero” countries), economic activity (in the form of discretionary mobility) has returned to normal; in those that have not (“balancing act”), it is still about 40 percent lower than before the pandemic (exhibit).
